Risk Indexes & Analyses

There are a number of individuals and institutions generating quantitative analyses on various global issues from human rights and civil liberties, to conflict prevention, to global governance, among others. Given the vast amount of variables and indicators that can lead to potential genocide – from variants of poverty to variants of political repression – these indexes can be helpful in assessing probable solutions to genocide prevention. Although the efficiency of quantitative over qualitative analyses is debatable, they nevertheless present an alternative means of analyzing the early prevention of genocide and mass atrocities.

List of Indexes:

Freedom House, Freedom in the World. Reports on countries and related and disputed territories. Contains the following information: population, capital, political rights (numerical rating), civil liberties (numerical rating), status (Free, Partly Free, or Not Free), and a ten-year ratings timeline. The political rights and civil liberties categories contain numerical ratings between 1 and 7 for each country or territory, with 1 representing the most free and 7 the least free. Updated annually; late spring/early summer.

Genocide Watch, Genocides, Politicides, and Other Mass Murder Since 1945, With Stages in 2008. Rated by stages of genocide, 1 (classification)-8 (denial); 8 being highest).

Human Security Centre, The Human Security Report 2005. Draws on the most recent scholarly research, focuses on people rather than states, and strives to be accessible to non-specialists; deals with global and regional security trends rather than developments in specific countries. Last updated 2005.

International Crisis Group, CrisisWatch. Monthly regular update on the state of play in all the most significant situations of conflict or potential conflict around the world.

Minority Rights Group International, Peoples Under Threat. Based on previous conflict indicators, major armed conflicts, genocides/politicides; with rates of indicators of group division and democracy/governance. Updated annually every March.

The Economist Intelligence Unit & Vision of Humanity, Global Peace Index. Based on a scale of 1-5 whereby 1=most at peace and 5=least at peace. Twenty four indicators combined into categories of measures of ongoing domestic and international conflict, measures of societal safety and security, and measures of militarization. Updated annually in August.

The Economist Intelligence Unit, Democracy Index. Based on five categories: electoral process and pluralism; civil liberties; the functioning of government; political participation; and political culture – based on the ratings of 60 indicators. Each category is rated on a scale of 1-10 (10 being best) and averaged out to a scale of 1-10. Updated annually in August.

The Fund for Peace & Foreign Policy Magazine, Failed States Index. Combines 12 various social, economic, and political indicators; each rated from 1-10 (10 being the worst); totaled into a highest possible 120. Updated annually in July/August.

United Nations Development Programme, Human Development Reports. The Human Development Index combines the rates of life expectancy at birth, knowledge and education, and standard of living. Range is from .000 (lowest) to 1.000 (highest); Classified into high human development (HDI of 0.800 or above), medium human development (HDI of 0.500–0.799) and low human development (HDI of less than 0.500). Normally updated annually in November.

World Bank, Governance Matters: World Governance Indicators. Reports aggregate and individual governance indicators for 212 countries and territories over the period 1996–2007, for six dimensions of governance: Voice and accountability, political stability and absence of violence, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law, control of corruption. Last updated June 2008.