• What is early warning?
• What makes an effective early warning system?
• How is early warning different from conflict risk assessments?
• UN early warning mechanisms
• Regional earning warning mechanisms
• Latest news
• Resources

What is early warning?

Early warning is a critical element of conflict prevention and management. The term is generally used to define the systematic collection and analysis of information for the purposes of anticipating the escalation of violent conflict, developing strategic responses to these crises, and presenting options to critical actors for the purposes of decision making and response.

The policy relevance of early warning is rooted in the nature of early warning systems themselves. They are not restricted to analyzing a crisis, but also assess the capacities, needs, and responses for crisis management. The central purpose of early warning is therefore not only to identify risk but also to generate the necessary political will for preventive action to be taken.

What makes an effective early warning system?

Emerging good practices gleaned from existing regional and sub-regional mechanisms, as well as academic research based on empirical studies, indicate that a comprehensive and effective early warning system requires four major components, beginning with the collection of information and knowledge of risk, to adequate preparedness to act on early warning. Each component must be operational in order for the system to be effective.

A sound early warning system enjoys strong linkages between the four components, buttressed by strong coordination among the major actors, their agreement on and implementation of clear, specific responsibilities, and the existence of mutually agreed guidelines and practiced operational procedures.

How is early warning different from conflict risk assessments?

Risk assessments are concerned with identifying situations in which the conditions for a particular kind of conflict are present. Risks are assessed on the basis of background and intervening conditions that establish the potential for conflict, often referred to as the “root causes” of conflict. Whether such risks are realized is contingent on whether the preconditions remain unchanged, as well as on the occurrence of accelerating or “trigger” events that set the conflict into motion.

Early warnings are, by contrast, meant to act as a "forecast". They are derived from monitoring the flow of political events--in particular actions that are likely to precipitate the onset of conflict in high-risk situations--in addition to structural data, such as political, social and economic indicators. While the primary goal of risk assessment is to diagnose a situation rather than devise solutions, early warning is a process designed to pinpoint forward-looking preventive strategies.

Both risk assessments and early warning are necessary to generate effective and timely response—the former provides the context, while the latter comprises a form of interpretation that the outbreak of mass atrocities or genocide is likely and imminent.

UN early warning mechanisms

• Office of the Special Adviser on the Prevention of Genocide
• Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs - Early Warning and Contingency Planning Section
• Human Rights Council - Special Procedures

Regional early warning mechanisms

• African Union - Continental Early Warning System (CEWS)
• ECOWAS - Early Warning and Response Network (ECOWARN)
• Intergovernmental Authority on Development - Conflict Early Warning and Response Mechanism (CEWARN)

For more resources on early warning networks and mechanisms, see the Risk Index and Analysis page for early warning information and conflict trend analyses.

Latest News

Resources

• Ampleford, Susan. "Country Indicators for Foreign Policy: Methodology Review". Discussion Paper. Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, July 2000.


• "Conflict and Peace Analysis and Response Manual". 2nd Ed. Forum on Early Warning and Early Response, July 1999.


• "Generating the Means to an End: Planning Integrated Responses to Early Warning". 2nd Ed. Michael Nobleza. Forum on Early Warning and Early Response, August 2000.


• George, Alexander L. and Jane E. Holl. "The Warning-Response Problem and Missed Opportunities in Preventive Diplomacy". Report to the Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, May 1997.


• Gurr, Ted Robert and Barbara Harff. "Early Warning of Communal Conflicts and Genocide: Linking Empirical Research to International Responses". Tokyo, The United Nations University, 1996.


• Gurr, Ted Robert and Monty Marshall. "Assessing the Risks of Future Ethnic Wars", in Ted Robert Gurr, Peoples Versus States: Minorities at Risk in the New Century. Washington, DC: US Institute of Peace Press, 2000.


• Harff, Barbara. Early Warning of Potential Genocide: The Cases of Rwanda, Burundi, Bosnia and Abkhazia. Chapter 3 in T. R. Gurr and B. Harff, United Nations University, 1996.


• Leitenberg, Milton. "Media and Genocide: Are Public Media Useful For Early Warning or Creating Political Will For Early Response?" Courmayeur, Italy, ISPAC/FEWER Conference Paper. Oct.4-6, 1997.


• Petrak J., Trappl R., Fürnkranz J. "The Possible Contribution of AI to the Avoidance of Crises and Wars: Using CBR Methods with the KOSIMO Data Base of Conflicts". Austrian Research Institute for Artificial Intelligence, Vienna, TR-94-32, 1994.


• Schmid, Alex P. "Thesaurus and Glossary of Early Warning and Conflict Prevention Terms". Forum on Early Warning and Early Response, May 1998.


• Schmid, Alex P. "Early Warning of Violent Conflicts: Causal Approaches", in A.P. Schmid (Ed.), Violent Crime & Conflicts. Milan, ISPAC: 1997, pp.47-84.


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